More Articles by Bob
Drought and the Economy 2011-2019, US and China
How to Survive the Great Depression of 2011-2012
5 Things the media forgot to ask during the 2010 elections
2010 Election and the 2012 Republican President
The Great Depression, is history repeating itself? A historical perspective
Some accurate predictions by Bob
Surviving debt collection for the next few decades
Housing Panic of 2009
to Survive the Great Stagnation of 2009 - 2015
Depression II, are the signs there?
to rent safely during the depression
to Survive the Great Depression of 2008- 2009
of the coming Real Estate Bubble?
By Bob Hoffman
Political Gateway (November 11th, 2010) - These are my thoughts. I work for neither company, party, or agenda. I hope it is wrong. I fear it is right. I ask you read this article and give it thought. My hope is to sober your vision on your family's financial future. A perspective from someone good at making some financial and political predictions in 2005 and 2008.
Starting in April of 2009, the recovery of what the media called 'The Great Recession' began. Between October 2008 and March 2009 the economy shuddered under financial collapse. From mid 2008 to March 2009; Oil dropped from 140+ to 32 a barrel, Gold from 1,100+ to around 700. Stocks went from over 12,000 on September 18th down to 6,500 by March 2009. The unemployment surged to an official 10%, an unofficial 17+%. Banks failed, big ones.
Some 19 months later Gold has gone up 100%, it has doubled. Oil has gone up to 90 a barrel, 200%, tripling in value. Stocks shot up 84% to around 12,000. Unemployment has dropped down to around 9.6%.
Although some numbers may sound good I believe they are harbingers of a big problem in our economy here in America. Problems that may end up hitting us with the backside of a financial hurricane many thought had passed.
The U.S. government has been printing money. Lots of it. The Central Bank (Fed) of the U.S. has had rates dropped to 0% for 2 years now. Unemployment barely moved. Income has gone down steadily, if not precipitously. Deflation for non-essential items is quite apparent as deals abound. Inflation is starting to show in items regarded as necessary to the US public. Water, electric, communication access, and food.
The housing market echoes the same refrain 'Now is the time to buy' as foreclosure repossessions are finally starting to finalize after years of inaction. Home prices have dropped despite heroic efforts from policy makers and lenders to keep artificial values steady.
My website, Political Gateway dot com, has a few articles on 'how to survive' in 2008 detailing the first blow of the 2nd great depression. Unfortunately, most of my predictions at the time came true. Luckily many of the things I presented to help your family were correct, if a bit incoherent.
Now is the time to listen again. You have some time to prepare. You have time to digest this article.
In foreclosure? Get out of your house
If you have been living in your foreclosure, a house you bought but can no longer pay for, time to get out. Many laws protect you in a foreclosure eviction. Unfortunately you will be calling a lawyer after you come home to an empty house with your possessions gone. Get out before this happens.
You need to find a house or apartment to rent now. Start looking now. On my site there is an article full of tips to find a rental that is not in foreclosure or duress. Follow that articles advice. (Article : How to rent safely during the depression .)
During this look at rentals you should secure a storage bin and a safe deposit box. Put your prized possessions in the bin and important documents and valuables in the deposit box. This will save you from losing all that is dear and valuable when the lien holder illegally evicts you and takes all your possessions.
I cannot stress how important it is to act immediately. Start now so you can get out as soon as possible. Rental vacancies are at all time highs yet 90% of them are homes in duress or heading there. When the mass foreclosures really start the vacancies will dry up and rental prices will shoot through the roof. Do not get stuck on the curb with your stuff in a truck with no where to go. Or paying rent at 3 times normal rate.
Realize storage bins and moving trucks will be at a premium or unavailable in some areas. In boom areas this will surely be the case. Do not get stuck. Get out now and try to find someplace safe to rent. I guarantee it will not be easy now, while you have time. It will be near impossible when you get a 24 hour eviction notice.
Renting, Check your Landlord out now!
If you are renting you better check your landlord out now. Go to public records online for your county or go downtown. Look to see if they are in foreclosure. Look at their mortgages. Look to see if they have many properties in foreclosure. More importantly, make sure the person you are paying rent actually owns it.
Your lease will not protect you from lender hired hooligans who come to empty the house illegally. Or even legally. They will throw you in the street. Your landlord has probably not followed the law and that means your advance rent payments (last and security) are not in an escrow account. This means it is gone.
If you see an issue with the home you are in, get out as soon as possible. See a lawyer immediately about not paying anymore rent. The fact that your landlord did not put the money in escrow means the lease was already void, broken by the landlord.
Find a safe place to rent and get the hell out before you lose everything to a foreclosure eviction with little or no notice.
Own your home, not in foreclosure?
Lenders are 'accidentally' foreclosing on homes they do not own.
Better get with your neighbors and get a lawyer on standby. Many homeowners have come home to find the home empty. The bank put the wrong address down and everything was thrown out, animals taken to the pound to be killed.
You need a neighborhood watch to help each other out. You need to get a number for the local police that deals with evictions and ask them what to do in such a case, before your stuff is stolen/thrown out. A lawyer's number is always good to call if they show up at your door and you are there.
This affects you.
Still struggling to make payments, hoping the market will come back?
I am so sorry. You had an opportunity to save up money for your family but your pride got in the way. As home prices fall like a rock in 2012, your income goes down, and prices on items rise, you are done. Unfortunately for you the lenders will not be waiting 2 to 5 years to foreclose on you. It will be within months.
I am very sorry for you. You made a bad business decision and your family will suffer for it. All that money was wasted. This goes for you 'loan modification' people.
Please look at my badly presented April 2008 article about checking out your landlord first. Not following my advice could cause your family pain.
(How to rent safely during the Depression)
And that is it for housing in this article. Now on to other items.
If there is another crash of sorts, unions will be viciously attacked. If you decide to strike and you are in the airline, rail, trucking, or energy fields you better have a first aid kit at home, it could be ugly for you. Others will just be replaced by 'scabs' without a care. Let me be clear 'Unions are to be broken if at all possible if the market crashes in 2012.'
Basically, the media is going to be against you.
The Republican President of 2012
Won't be Sarah Palin, sorry. Political strategy is pretty obvious here. Dems in control of Senate, Republicans in control of the House. However, a very important amount of the Republicans in congress are the celebrated Tea Party Republicans. This is perfect for 'moderate conservatives' who can blame the crash on both the Dems and the 'radical/extremists' of the Tea Party and their supporters.
Many call Obama Hoover. I do not. But Bush is Coolidge. Calvin Coolidge was out of office a year and then the economy collapsed. It was his presidency that brought the boom. With Roosevelt in office everyone longed for old Coolidge, when we 'were in the money.' Bush will be remembered during the 2012 elections, if there is a crash, as a time when their were jobs, proud patriots, soaring home prices, and 'times were just good'.
This strategy demands a crash in early to mid 2012 to precede the Republican primaries and ensure a 'moderate conservative' to come 'save the country.'
Gold, Stocks, futures, etc.
Get out now. Just get out. Cash is king. There is a boom coming, little doubt in that. Do you really want to risk your entire financial future and your retirement on this economy. Really? You are a fool if you do. Waiting til early to mid 2011 might be okay, but why chance it?
Sit this one out. Start now. Get out now. Really. Now. And for God's sake, don't buy gold, silver, or crap like that. You cannot buy food with gold.
If you take 500,000 (as an example) out of the market now in 2012 if there is a crash you will have 500,000. Cash. Everyone else will be complaining about losing everything. Miss this boom, do your family a favor.
Even though stocks and commodities have boomed (boom- red flag word) in the last 19 months, stocks still are not where they were in September 2008 when I told you to get out then. Gold had a high around 1,100 in April 2008 when I said to stay away. It took all those years to finally get back to that point and shot past it to 1,400.
Remember that day a few months back where the market fell over 1,000 points in just 20 minutes? I guarantee you when the crash comes you will be last on the list of people to get out of it. With the 'stops' on trades set in stone, your trades will be last. You will lose your ass. Why in the world would you risk it?
There is nothing in the economy or any kind of financial structure that supports the boom we see now and the one coming. Manipulation works hand in hand with speculation. Get out now. Miss this boom. Take your money and run. A bird in the hand is worth two in the bush. Prepare for the worst, hope for the best.
Hope you get this information before it is too late.
Some predictions for the next 24 months, just my guesses.
(no sense doing a forecast article without some 'wild' predictions with Bob's arbitrary numbers and vague generalizations.)
- Big boom in commodities and stocks over the next 8 months
- Big boom in foreclosure sale prices due to rent increases
- Interest rate rise by the Fed to precede the massive foreclosure actions
- Printing money by the Treasury should take us to early 2012 before failure
- Gold is going to 5,000 in the next few years? Oil to 200? You are an idiot. Gold 100, oil 15 by year end 2012, if not before.
- Unions blamed for everything. Really
- Republican president and congress 2012.
- Unemployment, if a crash, will soar
- Crash of commodities and stocks by mid 2012.
- A rental crisis will result from mass foreclosures.
- The end of the rental crisis will signal the final crash of the housing market to real values.
- You will be blamed for hoarding if the economy suffers again. It will be 'the people's fault' and not the government or the big businesses.
- Interest rates for us, the public, will be higher than they were in the 80s recovery. Look for 20% + rates for mortgages by 2013.
There is no way the booms in India, China, and Australia will last to 2012. These crashes will rebound across the world as the US bust did in 2008.
This is not your grandfather's depression. We are sliding back into the pre-1945 way of thinking in politics, foreign policy, expansion, and security. This is a direct result with the ending of nuclear peace that has kept us all warm and fuzzy since 1945.
The next decade should be historic. Record it via video or in writing.
(for perspective, the numbers early am, Nov. 11th 2010 when I wrote this.)
Gold was around 1,407
Oil around 88.50
Sites discussing this article
City Data Forums (Link)
Florida Shooter Forums (Link)
Americans for Legal Immigration (Link)
Gold is Money (Link)
Tatamkulu Africa (Link)
Ohomen171's blog (Link)
And apparently, I have been twittered a few times. Not a link to a discussion, but thanks to the following twitter people for reading and tweeting about it..
Waldbewohner, freedomhumanity, vw8.
Update Nov 17th, 2010:
I got some good crazy mail from a number of people on the gold issue. Here is a response I wrote at 'gold is money' forums.
Every major crisis in the modern america, even early america, has caused a change in our monetary policy...or been caused by one.
Here are many of the major ones
Panic of 1795 just 4 years after the first bank of america charter.
Panic of 1819 just 8 years after 2nd bank of america charter.
In both cases massive fraud, land booms, heavy speculation.
Panic of 1893 shortly after major legislation to prevent treasury from failing due to the silver/gold war.
Gold standard act 1900, severe panic in 1908.
Fed introduced in 1913, massive boom after WWI
Great Depression Crash 1929, 1930s saw two gold standard changes, one a suspension to protect the treasury, another to stabilize gold prices and take over most private supplies. Long depression follows.
End of war and depression coupled with change in gold standard in 1945
1960s saw financial upheaval, 1971 Nixon changes gold standard again. Before this time gold had never been above 50 bucks an ounce.
Massive recession, worst since great depression hits the 70s, energy crisis, gold zooms from its normal levels of 35 to 850. Then it crashes, interest rates rise.
Now here we are again, massive depression/recession, massive fraud, speculation, etc. Big talk around is changing our money supply/gold in some way. This seems very plausible based on past history.
This is a boom. This is speculation. There will be a crash. When the new congress takes its seat the boom should really get into high drive.
Gold will tank. Are you gonna risk your financial future on what the new currency format will do to your gold? Kool-aid tastes great, but history shows we are at the end of the current gold format, guaranteed.
Get out now or very soon.
(responding due to an email from someone here demanding I explain myself)
1- in 2005 I wrote two articles, both on my site, saying to get out now, sell your home before the real estate crash. I called it for october 2005 and that is when sales fell off a rock. I talked about the great depression lending standards.
2- in 2008, my article was lambasted on here too. I said to stay away from gold, it dropped from 1,100 to 700 during my prediction time.
I wrote it in april 2008
2008 article said economy would collapse when the dems win the election, it did.
2008 article said drastic drop in home prices when dem president takes office, jan 2009 price drop worst since 1970s, Feb worst since great depression, first quarter had a price drop worse in US history.
oil was 110 on its way to a peak at 143. Everyone said 200 a barrel. I said it would be 34 a barrel by year's end. December 19th it was 33.87. Jan it was 32.
3) september 18th I drew parallels to the great depression speeches to modern speeches. I said, without doubt, the time for preparation is over, we were 'in the moment' of a GD crash.
Within 2 weeks the stock market collapsed.
and I could go on.
Yea, I sound crazy. Yea, I am usually right. All I say is to think about your family's future and plan accordingly. IF gold is gonna go up forever, then it does not matter when you get in it. So why not wait a couple years and sit this ride out?
It is not fun being told I am crazy and nuts all the time. It is worse when what I write comes true and no one listens.
Look at my articles. Other than the miscue of the housing crisis article and the end of the stagnation article, based on the housing crisis, I have been right near 100% of the time. This includes pretty much exact dates and numbers.
The housing crisis articles were based on a 'sunshine' belief that the interest rates of the fed would rise when obama took office. Like many I was horrified to see them keep it. What could have been a short bad depression will now last a very long time.
I say, in answer to that wonderful email, get out now. Do not gamble your families future based on kool-aid that everyone is using as mantra.
Am I rich? No. I went bankrupt in 2005. I was a real estate broker and mortgage broker. I refused to help people buy homes from 2003 on. I spent time trying to talk them out of it. I ended up working as a dj in a strip club to survive. I could have made a bundle, instead I tried to help others.
I have no agenda, I am not a union hack, I am not a party plant. I am just someone who is really good at figuring out the big picture and suffers the consequences of trying to warn others. It is not fun being the crazy person in the group.
In 2012, if all of this comes true, I will be remembered as the crazy guy and no one will believe I wrote this when I did. That is the way it has been since I can remember.
You have my thoughts. Think about it and plan accordingly. Send as much hate mail as you need to make you happy. I still feel bad for you.
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